The National Resistance Movement (NRM) goes to primaries today to choose parliamentary candidates who will carry the party’s flag in the 2026 elections. Voting was scheduled to start at 10 a.m. across 72,000 villages.
In many ways, the NRM primaries remain a microcosm of Uganda’s polarized politics. Yet, for all the democratic pomp, NRM primaries have a notorious reputation, etched in decades of turbulent history.
If history is any guide, here are five things that are almost certain to unfold as NRM chooses flag bearers.
Violence
The NRM primaries are rarely peaceful. Already there have been numerous reports of violence during the camapigns. In Ntungamo Municipality,supporters of incumbent MP Yona Musinguzi accused their opponent, Phillip Akankwasa Tumuhimbise, of torching Musinguzi’s training school. In Kisoro’s Bufumbira South, supporters of Sam K. Bitangaro and incumbent Alex Niyonsaba Seruganda traded blows at Chahi Subcounty Headquarters, forcing police to intervene.
Similar scenes played out in Lwengo’s Bukoto West, where a supporter was knocked unconscious during a rally clash, and in Nakaseke, where a supporter of incumbent MP Enock Nyongore was shot and critically injured. These incidents echo the 2020 primaries, where fistfights, stabbings, and even deaths marred the process, particularly in Western Uganda’s strongholds like Mbarara.
Vote rigging
No NRM primary is complete without cries of vote rigging. In Sembabule, supporters demanded serialized declaration of results forms to prevent electoral malpractice, citing a history of manipulated voter registers. The 2015 and 2020 primaries saw widespread claims of pre-ticked ballots and inflated voter lists, especially in Western Uganda, where NRM’s dominance makes the primary the de facto election. Political analyst Gerald Walulya notes that such accusations fuel distrust, often pushing losing candidates to run as independents, further splitting the NRM vote.
Bribery fuels the primaries
Bribery is the open secret of NRM primaries. In Rukungiri, MP Erisa Rutahigwa raised alarms about candidates doling out cash to sway voters, a practice so common it’s practically a tradition. Posts on X from candidates like Katerega Uthman in Western Uganda decried opponents handing out money to influence voters, calling it an “insult to democracy.”
In past primaries, candidates have been filmed distributing cash and goods, from sachets of waragi (local gin) to bags of rice, especially in rural constituencies like Sheema and Kassanda. The NRM’s Electoral Commission chair, Tanga Odoi, has condemned these practices, but enforcement remains weak, and the cash flow continues to shape outcomes.
Voter intimidation
Intimidation is another hallmark. In Arua City’s Ayivu East, three supporters were injured in attacks during campaign events, prompting candidates to demand better security. In Sembabule, complaints of harassment have gone unaddressed by local police and NRM officials, leaving voters wary.
The 2015 primaries saw similar tactics, with hired “goons” disrupting rallies and sectarian radio attacks stoking ethnic tensions. This year, the NRM’s new rule barring losers from running as independents has heightened fears of retaliation, with some aspirants warning that rigged primaries could spark further unrest if voters feel cheated.
Security crackdowns
As chaos unfolds, security forces step in, often with a heavy hand. The Inspector General of Police, Abas Byakagaba, has deployed police and military across hotspots like Nakasongola, Sembabule, and Rukungiri, vowing to quash violence. In Mubende, Isingiro, and Rubanda, police has arrested 16 suspects for assault, arson, and vandalism, ahead of the voting. Yet, this militarization has critics worried. The 2020 primaries saw excessive force, with tear gas and arrests stifling legitimate protests.
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