Tribunal Standoff Grips Kassanda South NRM: Mubiru’s Security Ties and Propaganda Escalate Tensions Over Bisaso’s Victory

Kassanda, Uganda – The unresolved NRM Central Electoral Tribunal case challenging Abdul Bisaso’s narrow victory in the July 17, 2025, Kassanda South parliamentary primaries has plunged the constituency into a volatile standoff, with Eriya Mubiru’s alleged security connections and aggressive propaganda campaign deepening divisions. As locals brace for a ruling, fears mount that the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) disarray could jeopardize its chances in the 2026 general elections, not only for the parliamentary seat but also for President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s re-election and other district positions.

The primaries, overseen by Kassanda District NRM Registrar Henry Rukundo, saw Bisaso secure 10,226 votes against Mubiru’s 9,860 and Simeo Nsubuga’s 3,172, out of roughly 24,000 valid votes cast (68% turnout among 45,000 registered NRM members). Mubiru’s July 20 petition, alleging vote rigging and intimidation at 25 polling stations, remains unresolved, with the tribunal’s repeated adjournments—most recently on August 5—fueling accusations of deliberate delays. The process, typically resolved within 14-21 days per NRM’s 2010 constitution, is strained by a nationwide backlog of 200 disputes, a consequence of the party’s expanded 10-million-strong membership.

Adding to the turmoil, Rukundo’s recent imprisonment on charges related to the primary election has sparked outrage among Bisaso’s supporters, who blame Mubiru’s influence as a contractor with the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF). Mubiru, notorious for moving with armed soldiers and boasting State House connections, is accused of leveraging these ties to orchestrate Rukundo’s remand, undermining the primary results. “He flaunts military escorts and claims Kampala will hand him the flag,” said a Kiganda Town Council resident,who prefers to remain anonymous for fear of retribution by Eriya ‘s henchmen, reflecting sentiments echoed in local X posts. This perception is bolstered by Mubiru’s history as a Nalutuntu-based land dealer, whose 500-acre cattle farm has sparked wrangles, including the controversial enclosure of Bukompe Village, affecting 150 households (Uganda Land Alliance data).

Mubiru’s media machine—spanning WhatsApp groups,Tiktok accounts and ads on local radios —has amplified claims that the tribunal has “already awarded him the card,” with 50,000 social media impressions in the past week alone, outpacing Bisaso’s 20,000. His assertions of clinching victory through “Kampala connections” have fueled propaganda, with 62% of 500 surveyed residents (Kassanda Development Forum, August 2025) believing the delay is politically motivated. This has eroded NRM trust, with member engagement down 15% since the dispute began.

Bisaso, a self-made entrepreneur with deep Kiganda roots, commands organic support from his youth leadership days in pre-2017 Mubende District and his role as NRM DEC Chairman for Entrepreneurs. His contributions to past victories—Nyombi Thembo, Simeo Nsubuga, and Michael Muhumuza in 2021—alongside initiatives like Emyooga (UGX 2 billion to 5,000 youth since 2020), cement his grassroots appeal. Yet, the tight margin (366 votes) underscores the need for unity with Mubiru and Nsubuga, whose combined 23,258 primary votes could secure 20,000 in the generals—crucial in a constituency where NUP’s Frank Kabuye Kibirige won in 2021 with 12,279 votes (39% of 31,453).

NRM insiders warn that consolidating Bisaso, Mubiru, and Nsubuga is vital not only for the MP seat but also to boost Museveni’s tally (10,456 votes or 33% in 2021) and secure positions like woman MP and district LC chairman. Kassanda’s 315,000 residents, reliant on agriculture (70% of household income) and grappling with 18% youth unemployment (UBOS 2024), demand cohesive leadership. Mubiru’s security-backed posturing, however, risks alienating voters, with his land disputes—resolved in court against Abdi Hassan in 2022 but ongoing with neighbors—casting him as an outsider.

As the September flag bearer certification deadline nears, Kassanda remains on edge. “Mubiru’s soldiers and boasts are splitting us,” a local elder warned, predicting opposition gains if the “floodgate” of disunity persists. Bisaso’s camp is countering with community outreach, but the tribunal’s silence and Mubiru’s military clout threaten NRM’s hold on Greater Mubende, where 2021 losses to NUP loom large. A ruling, expected by August 15, is critical to averting electoral disaster in 2026.