By Dr Patrick Wakida
Uganda has set out an ambitious economic transformation plan aimed at expanding its economy tenfold, from $50bn in the 2023/24 financial year to $500bn by 2040, under what is known as the Tenfold Growth Strategy.
The strategy, launched in 2023, is designed to position the country as a competitive player in the global economy within 15 years.
It focuses on large-scale economic expansion driven by targeted investments, sector prioritisation, and measurable growth benchmarks.
At the core of the plan are specific economic targets that define the growth path. Uganda aims to double its gross domestic product every five years, requiring a sustained annual growth rate of at least 10%.
Per capita income is projected to rise from $1,039 to $7,000 by 2040. Merchandise exports are expected to increase from 13% to 50% of GDP, while medium and high-tech manufactured exports are also targeted to reach 50% of GDP.
The strategy further outlines plans to increase domestic savings from 21% to 40% of GDP and raise foreign direct investment inflows from about $3bn annually to $50bn. Tax revenue is also expected to grow, with the tax-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 13% to more than 25%.
To achieve these targets, the government has anchored the strategy on four key sectors, referred to as ATMS. These include agro-industrialisation, tourism development, mineral-based industrial development, and science, technology, and innovation.
Under agro-industrialisation, the focus is on commercialising agriculture and promoting value addition. This includes producing processed goods such as flour, juices, roasted coffee, and packaged honey, as well as shifting away from exporting raw agricultural products.
Tourism development aims to increase the number of visitors to Uganda while improving their experience. The strategy targets a fivefold increase in tourist arrivals, supported by better infrastructure, marketing, and service delivery to encourage longer stays and higher spending.
Mineral-based industrial development seeks to utilise Uganda’s natural resources to drive industrial growth. This includes domestic refining and processing of oil and gas, gold, tin, and iron, alongside the development of petrochemical industries.
Science, technology, and innovation are identified as key drivers of high-value manufacturing and economic diversification. Planned initiatives include investment in vaccine and diagnostic development, as well as the expansion of information and communication technology.
The strategy is aligned with Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth, specifically the take-off phase, which is characterised by rapid industrialisation and increased investment. Uganda aims to exceed investment levels of 10% of GDP, supported by higher domestic savings and increased foreign direct investment.
It also emphasises structural transformation, particularly the movement of labour from subsistence agriculture to more productive sectors such as industry and services, to improve productivity and create jobs.
Implementation of the strategy is already underway. In the first quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, Shs17.18tn was released, representing 23.7% of the total budget allocation.
Sector-specific funding included Shs1.076tn for transport, Shs215.28bn for agro-industry, Shs139.13bn for science, technology, and innovation, Shs26bn for minerals, and Shs20.5bn for tourism.
Export performance has shown growth, with total exports reaching $13.4bn in 2024/25. Merchandise exports accounted for $10.6bn, driven largely by coffee, gold, cocoa, sugar, and fish.
Uganda’s economy expanded by 6.9% over the first three quarters of the 2024/25 financial year. Growth is projected at 7% for 2025/26, with expectations of further expansion once oil production begins.
The strategy identifies several key requirements for success. These include strengthening fiscal discipline through improved spending efficiency, reduced corruption, and enhanced tax collection. It also calls for better investment efficiency, with a focus on productive assets such as machinery and factories.
Human capital development is highlighted as a priority, particularly through strengthening science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education and expanding vocational training in sectors such as agro-processing and mineral development.
Improving the business environment is another key focus, including ensuring reliable infrastructure, strengthening contract enforcement, and attracting higher levels of foreign direct investment.
The strategy also emphasises the need to address youth employment by promoting labour-intensive growth and supporting entrepreneurship to absorb Uganda’s growing young population.
In addition to sectoral priorities, the plan outlines key enablers that must be supported through the national budget. These include fiscal discipline and revenue mobilisation, infrastructure development, human capital and skills development, investment efficiency, and trade and export competitiveness.
The government has allocated Shs42.694tn towards debt servicing while ring-fencing funding for priority sectors. Infrastructure development is supported by allocations to transport, energy, and industrial parks, including facilities in Namanve and Mbale, aimed at lowering production costs and improving competitiveness.
Human capital investments include Shs3.304tn for technical and vocational education and training, industrial hubs, and the Parish Development Model. A further Shs3.534tn has been allocated to governance, security, and anti-corruption efforts to strengthen the investment climate.
Efforts to boost trade and export competitiveness are focused on increasing exports to 50% of GDP through the National Export Development Strategy and expanding access to regional markets under the East African Community and the African Continental Free Trade Area.
The Tenfold Growth Strategy outlines a structured framework for Uganda’s economic transformation, combining sector prioritisation, measurable targets and budget alignment to support the country’s transition towards sustained growth by 2040.
The author is an economist and the MP-elect for Kabweri constituency, Kibuku district. He delivered this paper at the ongoing NRM retreat at Kyankwanzi.
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